Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 34.524045 40.982944 48.114137 56.543733 66.206459 76.906315 89.619928
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 25.652443 34.317905 44.856832 58.492965 75.531240 95.970127 122.179102
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 21.064474 30.887548 43.739188 61.509944 85.128761 115.092021 155.571272
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 17.833663 28.275578 42.801243 64.015710 93.652160 132.954415 188.255578
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 14.878416 25.364111 40.794492 64.467590 99.030489 146.673675 216.101727
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 12.037922 22.038183 37.580655 62.574255 100.611764 154.961397 236.750351
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 10.270418 20.057563 36.032252 62.809826 105.061406 167.324934 263.622284
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.979428 18.627787 35.105325 63.791335 110.550703 181.378373 293.599864
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.013114 15.620020 31.114123 59.285108 106.928410 181.353721 302.482870
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.304027 14.839782 30.842457 60.914624 113.200760 196.773048 335.509536
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 5.401592 13.502977 29.368723 60.247297 115.520302 206.002392 359.318879
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.187797 13.565346 30.511718 64.352981 126.224213 229.268535 406.455478
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 4.045163 11.461298 27.344397 60.516031 123.414554 231.300550 421.495950
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.628123 10.952602 27.353957 62.809205 131.926500 253.136652 470.838756
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.337146 10.683680 27.819750 66.037710 142.414921 279.024879 528.460680
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.037872 10.319564 28.010897 68.702277 152.023603 303.936855 585.762540
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.638429 9.578277 27.217752 69.182522 157.407156 321.612692 631.474065
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.164295 8.482979 25.390971 67.171063 157.622257 329.847955 660.968810
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.876473 7.867673 24.630758 67.421363 162.393673 346.724573 706.696050
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.662636 7.427761 24.241619 68.464151 168.865204 367.140137 759.824501
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.265988 6.215087 21.553224 63.675400 162.459722 362.400035 766.313627
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.146728 5.977927 21.532434 65.407436 170.369480 386.018960 826.929245
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.972048 5.459001 20.595457 64.698175 172.756485 398.772717 867.518593